Bitcoin’s run to the most recent ATH of $69,000 would’ve sounded unreal only a few years ago back when Bitcoin traded around $3000 and the same goes now if we tell you that Bitcoin might cost up to $200,000 only in a few months according to numerous market cycle indicators.
Willy Woo’s Top Indicator.
Famous on-chain analyst Will Woo has previously developed an indicator that shows traders the current cycle’s top and the bottom. The indicator is a calculation based on the average market capitalization and days of market existence.
According to data provided by indicators today, Bitcoin is moving only in the middle of the current cycle and still has some room to grow. The current cycle top stays around $200,000 which is more than 100% away from today’s market price.
Previously, the indicator showed more than 3 successful tests and caught the exact top each time: back in 2011, 2013, and 2017. The same rule also applies for market bottoms that have been successfully tracked by the indicator 2 times.
With the constant growth of the cryptocurrency market, its capitalization gradually increases which moves “the top” farther from the current price. After the approval of the first U.S. Bitcoin ETF, the market attracted more than $1 billion of institutional investors funds which have lifted the bar of coin’s growth potential.
Relative strength index.
One of the most famous indicators among both securities and cryptocurrency traders utilizing technical analysis. The RSI indicator was developed back in 1978 but still remains one of the best indicators for determining if the market is overbought or oversold. It can also be used to track trading patterns and divergences.
To correctly track the long-term status of the market, you should apply the indicator on a long-term timeframe like 1 week or even 1 month. Since Bitcoin is a relatively “young” asset that has been actively trading for only the last 8-9 years.
If we open the weekly Bitcoin chart we can easily see that RSI is not even remotely close to values that are being considered as overbought or oversold. As for now, RSI shows a value close to 60 which is considered normal for the average bull market.
The highest values on the RSI were seen in January 2021 when Bitcoin topped out on $42,000 and then retraced to $32,000. While RSI remains below 80 values, the market shouldn’t be considered overbought; hence Bitcoin can still show a rapid run to higher values in the future.
Continuous fundamental growth.
In addition to the technical condition of the cryptocurrency market, fundamental factors are also looking pleasant for the market with hundreds of million inflows coming to the market each week.
After the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Institutional investors are able to constantly fund the crypto market via ProShares or VanEck products. Exchange-traded funds are available for all traders and private investors that are willing to receive exposure to the cryptocurrency market without having to purchase Bitcoin or any other digital assets.
In addition to constant institutional inflows, centralized crypto exchanges are showing constant supply drainage which is one of the main indicators of a fundamental growth of the market due to the absence of selling power.
Rapidly rising inflation in the U.S. is also a strong factor in favor of Bitcoin which is now being considered as one of the tools for inflation hedging due to being an asset with limited supply..
Some experts note that with Bitcoin breaking higher, more people would like to sell their holdings or take profits which will then lead to one of the strongest corrections ever known in the history of financial markets.